Not everything has gone smoothly for the Red Sox during their 3-5 start to the season.
They’ve made some uncharacteristic mistakes in the field, lost a couple games thanks to a
leaky bullpen, and—perhaps most frustrating of all—been woeful as a team at the plate
with runners in scoring position.
Indeed, if you’ve watched the Red Sox at all through these first eight games, you’ve
probably seen them strand more than a few runners on base, effectively killing one
promising rally after another. For any fan, there are few things more frustrating than
leaving men in scoring position, but just because the Red Sox have been woeful in these
situations so far, doesn’t mean this trend will continue over the next days, weeks, and
months.
In fact, considering this lineup’s track record (they did lead the majors in runs scored last
season, after all) and top-to-bottom talent, the Red Sox are a pretty good bet to improve
on their current performance with RISP as the season continues. Boston is currently
hitting .175 (10 for 57) with RISP, though as a team, the Red Sox have been even worse
than that figure might suggest considering Jackie Bradley Jr. has accounted for four of
those hits. The club’s current performance with RISP is the fifth-worst in baseball thus far.
Photo by Kelly O’Connor of sittingstill.smugmug.com.
With two outs and RISP—that odd statistic beloved by TV broadcasters everywhere—the Red Sox have only been slightly better, hitting a cool .185 (5 for 27) in such situations.
But before we jump to conclusions and declare this Red Sox club devoid of the all-
important clutch factor, let’s remember just how small these sample sizes are. Fifty-seven at-bats is not nearly enough of a sample to judge a player, much less a team, and RISP stats are notoriously fickle, often fluctuating from month-to-month and year-to-year no matter the team.
Let’s take the St. Louis Cardinals, for example. The Cardinals set a major-league record
last season for average with RISP over a full season, hitting .330 in such situations. For
many, this performance stood as undeniable proof that St. Louis’ batters were clutch and able to dial up their hitting in the most important of moments.
That the Cardinals simply had a lineup full of good hitters who were performing well was lost on many. Instead, the Cardinals stand a far greater chance of regressing from such a lofty team-wide average with RISP than repeating their incredible hitting from a season ago. In 2012, for instance, St. Louis batted .264 with RISP with much the same lineup, and so far this season, the Cardinals have been even worse than the Red Sox at leaving men on base, batting just .167 (12 of 72) with RISP, good for 28th in baseball.
Yet considering how deep and talented both lineups are, neither the Cardinals or the Red
Sox will continue to be so poor in these situations moving forward. Last season, the Cubs
were the worst lineup in baseball with RISP, hitting .218, and that Chicago lineup was
devoid of the overall talent currently on display in Boston. Even if the Red Sox were to
finish with the worst mark in the league with RISP, their performance would still likely
improve from its current state.
And that’s before we consider how the Red Sox lineup has performed on the whole. In
2013, Boston led the majors in on-base percentage at .349 and scored 853 runs. So far
this year, the Red Sox haven’t been quite so effective at getting on base, but their .335
OBP is nothing to scoff at and still ranks among the top 10 in baseball.
This is a lineup that still has David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli, and early Rookie of
the Year favorite Xander Bogaerts. This a squad that can still play the matchup game as
well as anyone, with Daniel Nava, Mike Carp, and Jonny Gomes all capable contributors
when put in the right situation. Along with their solid OBP, the Red Sox have amassed the
fourth-most hits of any club in the majors.
Those hits just haven’t come at the right time so far. They will, however, as the season
moves along, and the Red Sox keep giving themselves opportunities with men in scoring
position. Eight games is not nearly enough time to judge a team or their performance
with RISP. As surely as the weather will warm up across New England in the coming
weeks, so too will the Red Sox bats perform better in those crucial RBI situations.
Seeing groundout after groundout with runners on is no doubt frustrating, but in the
early going at least, that shouldn’t prevent you from remembering this remains a potent
and talented Red Sox offense.
The post The Red Sox and Hitting with Runners in Scoring Position appeared first on Fire Brand of the American League.